Reducing energy-consumption is “hot”

After reading this article “Nvidia is losing on the HPC front” by The Inquirer which mixes up the demand for low-power architectures with the other side of the market: the demand for high performance. It made me think that it is not that clear there are two markets using the same technology. Also Nvidia has proven it to be not true, since the super-computer “Nebuale” uses almost half the watts per flop as the #1. How come? I quote The Register from an article of one year old:

>>When you do the math, as far as Linpack is concerned, Jaguar takes just under 4 watts to deliver a megaflops at a cost of $114 per megaflops for the iron, while Nebulae consumes 2 watts per megaflops at a cost of $39 per megaflops for the system. And there is little doubt that the CUDA parallel computing environment is only going to get better over time and hence more of the theoretical performance of the GPU ends up doing real work. (Nvidia is not there yet. There is still too much overhead on the CPUs as they get hammered fielding memory requests for GPUs on some workloads.)<<

Nvidia is (and should) be very proud. But actually I’m already looking forward when hybrids get more common. They will really shake up the HPC-market (as The Register agrees) in lowering latency between GPU and CPU and lowering energy-consumption. But where we can find a bigger market is the mobile market.

Continue reading “Power to the Vector Processor” →

If you buy a car, the first choice is not often the kind of fuel. You first select on the engine-properties, the looks, the interior, the brand and for sure the total cost of ownership. The costs can be a reason to choose for a certain type of fuel though. In the parallel computation world it is different. There the fuel (CUDA or OpenCL) is the first decision and then the hardware is chosen. I think this is wrong and therefore speak a lot about CUDA-vs-OpenCL, while I think NVidia is a good choice for a whole list of algorithms.

If we give advise during a consult, we want to give the best advice. In case of CUDA, that would be based on budget to go for Tesla or the latest GTX; in case of OpenCL we can give much better advice on hardware. But actually starting with the technique is the worst thing you can do: focus on the hardware and then pick the technique that suits best.

IMPORTANT. The following is for understanding some concepts and limits only! It is pure theoretically, so I don’t claim any real-world results. Also what not is taken into account is how well different processors handle control-instructions (for, while, if, case, etc), which has quite some influence on actual performance.

Continue reading “Keep The Hardware Focus” →

After IBM-compatible clones took over from Apple, Atari and ZX Spectrum, we just got used to that a PC is an X86 with MS Windows and Office on it. Around a decade ago Apple fought back with OSX on which Windows 7 (launched in 2009) was the first real answer. Meanwhile Apple switched to Intel, since IBM was not fast enough with the development of the POWER-processor – a huge operation, which seemed a one-time-only step for Apple at the time. SemiAccurate now speaks of Intel being replaced by ARM on Apple’s laptops.

A few weeks ago I asked Computer Science students if they knew ARM. Not even 1% had heard of it, but lots more knew there was a Samsung-chip in their smartphone. So what’s going on without us knowing it?

I’ll try to describe the market for a few key-years and then try to put the big names in it. There is a lot going on between i.e. Nvidia, Samsung, Texas Instruments and Imagination Technologies in the ARM-market, but I’ll leave that out of the story. Also not mentioned are the game-consoles and servers, but they did have big influences on the home-PC market.

In the picture at the right you see an idea of how fast the markets would have grown from a 2006 perspective. (Click on it for the full report). You see that the explosive growth of smartphones was not expected; the other detail is that the cloud also was not foreseen here.

After reading you understand why Nvidia focuses so much on HPC and mobile.

After IBM-compatible clones took over from Apple, Atari and ZX Spectrum, we just got used to that a PC is an X86 with MS Windows and Office on it. Around a decade ago Apple fought back with OSX on which Windows 7 (launched in 2009) was the first real answer. Meanwhile Apple switched to Intel, since IBM was not fast enough with the development of the POWER-processor – a huge operation, which seemed a one-time-only step for Apple at the time. SemiAccurate now speaks of Intel being replaced by ARM on Apple’s laptops.

A few weeks ago I asked Computer Science students if they knew ARM. Not even 1% had heard of it, but lots more knew there was a Samsung-chip in their smartphone. So what’s going on without us knowing it?

I’ll try to describe the market for a few key-years and then try to put the big names in it. There is a lot going on between i.e. Nvidia, Samsung, Texas Instruments and Imagination Technologies in the ARM-market, but I’ll leave that out of the story. Also not mentioned are the game-consoles and servers, but they did have big influences on the home-PC market.

In the picture at the right you see an idea of how fast the markets would have grown from a 2006 perspective. (Click on it for the full report). You see that the explosive growth of smartphones was not expected; the other detail is that the cloud also was not foreseen here.

After reading you understand why Nvidia focuses so much on HPC and mobile.

Continue reading “The history of the PC from 2000 – 2012” →

You might have read about Molybdenite a few months ago. It is more efficient than Graphene which is in turn more efficient than good old Silicon, most notable energy-wise. Magazine ‘Nature’ had an article on it, which is summarised by Psychorg, so check it out. The claim it is 100 000 times more efficient than Silicon (and more efficient than the already very promising Graphene). This fan-free Silicon-replacer would be a major disaster for the cooling-industry!

But what would change for us? We are now on the edge to move to ARM (started by the smartphone- and tablet-industry), but is al this needed if the energy-costs drop to prices comparable to the costs to keep ice-cream cold on the North-Pole (20 years ago). This technique would give huge potential to Fusion-chips which now have a long way to go, to solve the heat-problem. But since it would take several years (and thus decades in hi-tech years) to get these chips on the market, no assumptions for market-share can be made based on what will happen in a few years.

Low-power ARM and Molybdenite X86

So this is European ARM (and licensees around the world) vs US Intel and AMD. The sarcastic joke among me and a few friends make, is that the fight of the past 20, 30 years between the economic US and EU is actually about who has the money to hire the most Asians, to develop the revolutionising devices. But as long as the US and EU have the feeling we are actually the equation of the competition as we are a massive 12% of the world-population, I won’t be behind the facts too much.

Since batteries don’t evolve as fast as processors, the power-problem needed to get slashed differently. A mayor reason for choosing ARM is that it uses less energy than X86, just like LCD/TFT is replaced by e-ink and organic LEDs and memory is non-volatile in portable devices.

In case we get a big reduction for CPU and memory, then the efficiency of the architecture is less of a problem. So then Intel and AMD can re-enter the market again, but then with much more powerful devices. Until then ARM-licensees like NVIDIA and ImTec have a better market if it comes to near-future devices. As I expected more tablet-manufacturers come up with docking-stations to replace the PC with a tablet. AMD and Intel have to keep surprising (and probably protect their market) the coming years to avoid losing from ARM. In other words: the coming years will be exciting how the consumer-market looks like and which companies deal in it. When thinking about these years, keep in mind what Windows XP has thought us: computers are fast enough for what average Joe wants to do with it. Hey, I use my laptop for OpenCL and the big screen, for the rest I use my mobile phone.

Hybrid chips

While I did not see it as a serious problem last year, the heat-problem for a GPU+CPU on one chip is quite a challenge. Waiting for the Molybdrenite or Graphene chips to mature will be like digging your own grave. Each step forward will result in two new products: one which is more power and/or heat efficient, and one which is more powerful. Since the competition from ARM-companies is heavy, the chances that the focus will be on more powerful Hybrid CPUs is bigger. As I stated above the losses are in the low-power area. Intel and AMD are very aware of this challenge.

Have you checked the differences between DirectX 10 and 11 games? Just check the discussions on the growing side of not needing to support DirectX 11, because 10 is good enough. Also here, the demand is higher to have the same graphics-quality for less money on more portable devices. Hybrid CPUs will eat the GPU-market for sure.

ARM-processors are hybrid processors. That’s all I tell, so you can -in combination with all stated above- formulate your own conclusions. I was very surprised NVIDIA started targeting ARM with their high-end GPUs, but was this a real bad idea?

Device vs Data-centre

Reduction of energy-costs for processors will reduce the head-less servers in the data-centre enormously. Internet costs loads of energy, both the transport and the servers – this will reduce the server-part of energy-consumption-sum with quite some factors. All positive news.

But if it all this becomes true, that chips don’t use much energy anymore and actually mobile internet and other radios take the most, what will happen to the cloud? Will you upload your video to get it processed or put your mobile in the sun to charge it while waiting a shorter period?

Current developments, future needs

We need arithmetic, media-processing and input/output; we all have that. We need long battery-life, a good screen and a fast way to input our data and commands; we get more of that each day. But heat-production is Silicon limits a lot, so we get the perfect electronic device the moment we can replace Silicon. Getting rid of the heat could give us square chips, with challenges like reinventing the socket and multi-multi-layerness.

So the question to you: is in The Last Nimzy sequel (you know, the movie with the molybdenite rabbit) a logo of Intel, AMD, ARM or another company found?